Will Red Meat Really Kill You? Breaking Down a New Study

A new study was published recently claiming that red meat might cause an increase in early death, but is the study flawed? I break down this study in detail to uncover the truth.

On March 12, a new study was published in the Archives of Internal Medicine and it’s created a low-fat, whole grain feeding frenzy by mainstream media. Headlines such as “Eating All Red Meat Increases Death!” and “Too Much Red Meat May Shorten Lifespan!” or my favorite: “Red Meat: a Ticket to Early Grave!” flooded the airwaves and internet the past couple of days.

It’s all quite dramatic and conjures up images of a beef-induced apocalypse worthy of a Hollywood blockbuster. But is all of this attention much ado about nothing? Let’s take a closer look, shall we?

What we have here is a basic observational study. That is, the researchers studied the diets of a group of about 121,000 people. They then drew a line from a particular component of their diet, in this case, red meat, to all causes of early death including Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) and cancer. They found that one serving of red meat per day was associated with a 12 percent increase in total mortality.

Of the 23,926 deaths documented, 5,910 were from CVD and 9,464 were from cancer. I admit I have limited math skills but so far that adds up to 15,374 deaths. That leaves 8,552 other deaths that we can assume were from anything from other diseases to automobile accidents to being bitten by a snake or other venomous critter.

For the record, you have a 1 in 100,000 chance of being killed by such a bite or sting. If my math is correct that means eating red meat increases your chances of dying by something like a spider bite from .0001% to a earth shattering .00112%. Better watch your step. Just saying. Oh... wait... correlation is not causation. In other words, this study can’t conclude that red meat causes increased deaths from cancer or heart disease any more than it can conclude that it causes increased death by something like a bee sting.

On the other hand, if this were a real experiment it would look something like a randomized crossover clinical trial. While the observational study, at best, can generate hypothesis, a clinical trial may actually be able to show proof of something. This type of study takes groups of people, puts them in a controlled environment and changes ONLY the aspect of the diet they are studying. In that situation the researches can observe changes that can clearly by attributed to the specific item being investigated. This is the gold standard in scientific research.

The Confounding Confounders Conundrum

Confound: verb. To cause to become confused or perplexed.

In the Red Meat Consumption and Mortality study there are so many confounders it actually becomes amusing to try and spot them all.

As it turns out, the folks that ate the least amount of red meat, also were the most physically active. Perhaps being more physically active might account for some of the longevity seen in the group eating less red meat as opposed to the folks who ate the most red meat who, lo-and-behold, were the least physically active.
Being physical activity is generally a good thing and sure is healthier than being physically sloth-like.

Moving on we also see that the group with the highest red meat intake also happened to be the heaviest drinkers of alcohol out of the bunch. What can I say, apparently meat-eaters like to party. Well, I like a good party as much as the next person but yet again, we have a confounding factor that could easily be attributable to a person’s early departure from this world.

What else do we know about the highest red meat intake group? Hmm ... not sure if this is relevant but, what-the-heck, I’ll throw it out there anyway. That group also happens to have the highest percentage of current smokers. This study is starting to have more holes in it than ... something with a lot of holes in it. Sorry I ran out of metaphors.

There are other confounders and imbalances in the report as well, like multivitamin usage and body mass index. The closer we look the harder it becomes to narrow down a causal role for mortality yet the researchers insist that it must be red meat.

The value of a well controlled and randomized trial and why it’s the gold standard in research is that it removes these types of confounders. When done correctly, for example, no one group would have an overwhelmingly higher percentage of smokers or drinkers in it.

Pop quiz:

Explain in detail everything you ate last week. Not so easy is it? Now tell me what you ate in the last 12 months. Impossible you might say yet that’s exactly what was expected of the subjects in the study. The data were collected using something called a Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ). This quote comes directly from the study:

“In 1980, a 61-item FFQ was administered to the NHS participants to collect information about their usual intake of foods and beverages in the previous year. In 1984, 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006, similar but expanded FFQs with 131 to 166 items were sent to these participants to update their diet.”

As you can see, participants were asked to recall details about their diet as far back as 4 years! A far better representation is something called a Dietary Record. By contrast this quote is from The International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 18, No. 4, 1998.

Between June 1980 and June 1981, participants completed a seven-day dietary record four times at intervals of approximately three months. Women were provided with a Pelouze dietetic scale for weighing food servings. Alternative methods employing common household measures were taught for use when away from home. All food and beverages consumed for a one-week period were recorded in a specially designed booklet. Participants provided detailed descriptions of each food, including brand and method of preparation and recipes whenever possible. The records were then coded by trained dietitians and reviewed by LS to minimize variability of interpretation. Participants were telephoned to resolve any discrepancies or to obtain further information when necessary.

That sure seems a lot more reliable. In fact, when comparing the FFQ to the Dietary Record that same article finds the following discrepancies (brackets in bold are mine):

As a second measure of validity we compared the absolute mean amounts of each food estimated by the two different methods. Although a ranking of subjects by intake is sufficient for many epidemiological analyses, an accurate estimate of the absolute amount consumed is desirable to formulate recommendations, [like a recommendation to avoid red meat like the plague?] and compare different studies. Focusing on the second questionnaire, we found that butter, whole milk, eggs, processed meat and cold breakfast cereal were under-estimated by 10 to 30% on the questionnaire. In contrast, a number of fruits and vegetables, skimmed or low fat milk, yoghurt and fish were overestimated by at least 50%. These findings for specific foods suggest that participants over-reported consumption of foods often considered desirable or healthy, such as fruit and vegetables, and underestimated foods considered less desirable. A similar bias was found in an Australian study. Hauser and Bebb found similar over- and underestimations in a dietary history compared with dietary records; citrus fruits, 'other cooked vegetables' and tea were overestimated by the dietary history and luncheon meat was underestimated.

I need to highlight this part one more time:
These findings for specific foods suggest that participants over-reported consumption of foods often considered desirable or healthy, such as fruit and vegetables, and underestimated foods considered less desirable.

Ummm.... really?! Shocker!

Despite these glaring over- and underestimations, the Red Meat and Mortality Study concludes that “Red meat consumption is associated with an increased risk of total, CVD, and cancer mortality.” Of course I can’t say it enough, correlation does not equal causation and folks, even the correlation here is about as flimsy and overestimated as the cooked spinach reported in FFQ. We also can’t be sure what else these folks were eating. Since hamburgers were included in the report we can safely assume that at least some portion of those burgers came from fast foods joints. Do you want fries with that? Of course you do and don’t forget to supersize me.

This is nothing more than another attempt to blame some old foods on some very new diseases. The same thing we’ve seen with things like eggs and butter. We’ve been eating these items for thousands of years but somehow they are causing the sudden rise in disease we’ve seen in the past 50 years. Of course some of these foods have changed dramatically in recent years and have a multitude of chemical and become more processed than ever before.

Certainly we should avoid food like pepperoni pizza, Slim Jim’s and other processed meats that contain nitrates, nitrites, antibiotics, hormones and other growth stimulants. Likewise we should limit our intake of meats that are fed an unnatural diet that’s comprised of grains, corn and soy. Cows and other ruminants are meant to eat grass. Feeding them anything else makes them sick and in turn, makes the meat from them unhealthy. So, should we really conclude that ALL red meat is bad based on one very poorly designed study? Of course not. Does it mean we should do our best to choose healthy meats from humanely raised, grass-fed animals? Indeed this food is some of the healthiest and nutrient-dense foods available to us and should be enjoyed regularly. As an added bonus, this type of animal husbandry is essential to a healthy environment.

So fear not my fellow omnivores and get your burger on. Just be sure to lose the bun and no, you don’t want fries with that.

This post is contributed by a community member. The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Patch Media Corporation. Everyone is welcome to submit a post to Patch. If you'd like to post a blog, go here to get started.

Jonathan Keyes March 21, 2012 at 04:34 PM
Just wanted to say I've really been enjoying your blog, Joe. I think an important lesson, as you point out, is just how much ambiguity there is surrounding what we eat and what we're "supposed to" eat. It's also important to consider the source of the information. For instance, Marion Nestle writes about how the food pyramid is just as much a product of political compromise as of nutritional research. What is unfortunate is that people who do want to eat better can have a hard time knowing how to do so, especially since, as you said, even the content of basic foods has changed over the years. So it is great that you are helping to make sense of all of this!
Fred Stewart March 22, 2012 at 01:02 PM
so, basically, everything in moderation...that being the case, you don't have to lose the bun or the fries either... just don't have them all the time, and like the grass fed beef, make sure they are comprised of quality ingredients!
Fred Stewart March 22, 2012 at 01:06 PM
ps, i don't necessarily buy the animal husbandry part... when rain forests are decimated at an unsustainable rate for grazing, and the amount of cattle raised for mass consumption emit methane at the rate they do... not necessarily essential to a healthy environment.
Joe Rignola March 22, 2012 at 07:08 PM
Hi Fred, I my experience, everyone's "moderation" is different depending on their personal situation. Personally I don't have wheat ever and most clients are advised to avoid it also. Some people can tolerate some wheat "in moderation" some people can't. I do enjoy some good fries every now and thenso you got me there. I usually make them myself though. Sweet potato fries are pretty darn amazing too. I'll write a future blog on why I think wheat (even "whole" wheat) is particularly insidious.
Joe Rignola March 22, 2012 at 07:20 PM
You raise a good point about the rain forests. I was thinking a bit more locally. Most of the corn grown here is to feed cattle. As I'm sure you know that corn is sprayed with an insane amount of chemicals. You can witness the results of this in the Gulf of Mexico at the mouth of the Mississippi. It's known as the "dead zone." As a matter of fact, the way farmers will rehabilitate soil after it's been destroyed by mono-crops like corn and soy is to plant grass and populate it with ruminants. We can agree that the cattle raised for mass consumption is not at all good for the environment. That's the difference between grass-fed and CAFO (Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations). Thanks for reading and commenting Fred!
Lauren K March 22, 2012 at 08:41 PM
Hi Joe, I agree completely! We've been trying to eat more local and organic meat and produce. I find we tend to eat LESS meat as a whole, and even less red meat in the grand scheme of things. It's amazing how many veggies you can fit in a meal when you try. It's not cause we don't like meat, its just that I know veggies are a bit more healthy to eat compared to a slab of meat. I was curious about your wheat comment though. You don't eat any wheat/flour/breads ever? Do you substitute other things? I look forward to reading your post.
Joe Rignola March 26, 2012 at 04:50 PM
Hi Lauren, You should look into joining a CSA. There are several around LI. The HOG in Brookhaven is the one we usually join. http://www.hamletorganicgarden.org/ Nope.. no wheat at all. I do have the occasional wheat free/gluten free bread, pasta or other treat but it's pretty rare. I have yet to find someone that doesn't feel better cutting that stuff out. The trick is to NOT just substitute with gluten free cereals, breads, pastas and other processed foods, but to improve the overall diet. Thanks for reading!
Lauren K March 27, 2012 at 12:43 PM
THE SOCIAL WORKER April 03, 2012 at 06:29 PM
you sound like a chiropractor
Joe Rignola April 04, 2012 at 05:28 PM
Are you saying that in a good way? ;)


More »
Got a question? Something on your mind? Talk to your community, directly.
Note Article
Just a short thought to get the word out quickly about anything in your neighborhood.
Share something with your neighbors.What's on your mind?What's on your mind?Make an announcement, speak your mind, or sell somethingPost something